I don know how long they will take to board and clear the pad

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canada goose outlet vancouver One canada goose clearance would assume that time spent in a state of flux (fueling) is more dangerous than the same time spent in a static state (boarding a fueled rocket). Hans said (I think they demonstrated this in the latest launch) that they can fuel in half and hour (I think they did it in 35 mins). That risk over 35 min, times the size of the crew is the Board metric that needs to be canada goose compared to the standard practice (Fuel The latter would be the the risk with the fully fueled rocket over the time that it takes to board, times the number of crew plus ground personnel at risk. I don know how long they will take to board and clear the pad, but I assume it would be more that 35 min, and I don know how many ground support personnel would be at risk, but I assume it would be several times the crew. So, based only on these considerations, the risk per unit time of the « Load Go » can easily be between 5 and 20 times higher than in standard practice, before the LOC risks are comparable. canada goose outlet vancouver

canada goose parka outlet uk A more complicated consideration is that we need to assign different weights to the loss of crew lives and the loss of life for ground personnel. Not because their lives have different intrinsic value, but because of the difference in the probability of each of them being dead (that what the « loss » in the LOC euphemism means) 6 months from now under the two scenarios. This difference is so great that the numbers don matter; it is orders of magnitude. It is, I would say, a moral lapse to put those that would be at no increased risk of imminent death in « Load Go » at the same jeopardy as the crew during the launch. The crew, after all, have already accepted the risks of an orbital mission, the ground crew is expecting to run errands and spend the evening with their friends and family. canada goose parka outlet uk

canada goose outlet in montreal Finally, in looking at the risk we must look at the available data, not just the theoretical considerations. Since AMOS 6, F9 has flown 26 times. Accounting for the FH flight this is 28 Load Go cycles. Each of these has had a static fire, which I have read here several times is like a launch, except they don release the hold downs. Many of these boosters have also had static fires in Texas, although I am not sure how complete that fueling procedure is. In any case there have been well over 60 samples without a loss, and this number will be quite a bit higher before DM cheap Canada Goose 2; if it not, all bets are off anyway. In any case, well over 100 trials without a failure actually Canada Goose Jackets demonstrated before DM 2. This hard data must be given proper weight when doing the LOC estimate. Obviously it would be nice to have 1000 trials, if your goal is 1/270 LOC, but this is much more data than is typical in this business. canada goose outlet in montreal

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canada goose outlet black friday Interesting that both Iridium 7 and 8 are going on new Block 5s. Given Iridium eager acceptance of flight proven boosters thusfar, it odd that they wouldn reuse a block 5 for flight 8. canada goose outlet black friday

canada goose uk Iridium 7 makes sense to go new because there be fresh out of gently used Block 4s. But after that they have a flight proven Block 5 on the Canada Goose Outlet West Coast. The only Vandenberg flight between Iridium 7 and 8 is Spaceflight Industries SSO A, currently listed in our manifest as new, but only because we haven heard otherwise. Either canada goose black friday sale way, there be one or more flown Block 5 at Vandy with plenty of life in them (1 or 2 flights on the odometer) in time for Iridium 8. canada goose uk

canada goose kensington parka uk There got to be another reason, then, for Canada Goose Online Iridium 8 to be going new. Maybe SpaceX wants to fly a new one to get to 7 flown Block 5s quicker for NASA certification? Still www.canadagooseonline.info , that seems a weak reason, since they got more than plenty of flights between now and DM 2. Maybe they want to get to 7 flights sooner than that because it take a long time for NASA to clear the paperwork afterward? (It already known that paperwork is perhaps the longest pole in the Commercial Crew tent.) canada goose kensington parka uk

canada goose outlet orlando I was surprised by this statement. It means that by mid September they will have two canada goose outlet orlando

canada goose sale uk Block 5 boosters at Vandy. At the production rate we have been seeing, by then they will canada goose sale uk

canada goose outlet montreal have six Block 5s 1046 thru 1051. B1046 has already flown, 1051 needs to be virgin for DM 1, and one of the remaining four should be a center core for the Fall FH flight, which I assume will also be virgin. So if two of the remaining ones are canada goose uk black friday in California, they only have 1046 and one other for the Cape manifest, and 1046, according to Elon, will be canada goose coats in the blocks for a couple of months for inspection (probably until late July). With these two they would have to canada goose clearance sale manage three flights: Telkom4 and the two Telstars. That seems cheap canada goose uk awfully tight, compared to reusing for Iridium 8, and Canada Goose Coats On Sale then moving a second core to the west coast in the fourth quarter. Not because I have some incredible superpowers or something and I been able to see if canada goose coats on sale they will be Block 5 second stages, it just that they running a production line and if this one is Block 5, that means they are canada goose factory sale now producing only Block 5 second stages so future flights will use Canada Goose Parka Block 5 stages. Also there was this comment that passed unnoticed that further supports (at least in some way.) what I say. canada goose outlet montreal

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canada goose outlet new york city This makes sense to me. It makes sense to assume that once the B5 config was finalized, Canada Goose online they would have immediately Canada Goose sale switched both the S1 and S2 lines to B5, and since the S2 line must be running faster than the S1 line, reflights of the last few B4 S1s (1040 OTV 5/SES), (1043 Zuma/Iridium6), and (1045 TESS/CRS 15) could, as you say, all have B5 S2s. canada goose outlet new york city

canada goose coats uk Will we be able to tell if this is so, even if they don tell us? I heard there are only minor (cosmetic) differences in the the S2s? Can anyone speak to this? canada goose coats uk

canada goose outlet real But this is an arbitrary number chosen because it is large enough for NASA to say they were tough, and low enough for SpX to meet without breaking a sweat (unless of course something blows up canada goose outlet sale , in which case nothing else matters). canada goose outlet real

canada goose outlet paypal But there is still a point here, in that one of NASA main concerns for crewed flight is the « load and go » strategy of fueling the rocket with crew on top. For canada goose uk outlet this every fueling without failure of the frozen configuration lowers this aspect of LOC risk. Not only does a B5 FH launch give you three more trials, it gives you six more as there will be a static fire, and every successful static fire counts canada goose store as an additional « load and go » validation. canada goose outlet paypal

canada goose outlet online uk Although there will be only some tens of individual stick validations of the the « load and go » before DM 2 with the frozen B5 system, Spx will have over 100 trials of the general procedure since the AMOS 6 fix was implemented. canada goose outlet online uk

canada goose outlet trillium parka black Risk assessments have to be based on more than a single, arbitrary metric, with go or no go consequences. It requires integrating all available relevant data, from performance, testing, and simulation. canada goose outlet trillium parka black

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canada goose shop uk I posit that S2 is faster to build than S1 which we just discovered takes canada goose uk shop three months. MVac) are more complex. canada goose shop uk

canada goose outlet legit I would have expected SpaceX to prioritise the first Block 5 S2 over the second Block 5 S1, which we believe has shipped to the Cape. The question for me is, which block S2 will fly with the upcoming reflights of Block 4 S1? Was there a stockpile of Block 4 S2s, was the line left flexible to allow either Block to be uk canada goose produced, or did production cut over to Block 5? If B5 is actually cheaper/faster to produce, they could all be Block 5 in future. canada goose outlet legit

canada goose outlet store calgary We won know unless SpaceX choose to announce it, or until a visually different S2 appears in service. If that does occur, we know that this was Block 4. If nothing is different by the time that DM 1 flies, we can assume no visual changes were required. canada goose outlet store calgary

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canada goose outlet houston Don see this argument. If anything, with Spx it seems to work the other way. Focus PR on the primary mission. Everything else is experimentation or fun and gets a lot of PR leeway. Like for FH: why risk negative coverage for a « stunt »; or why go for landing all three, when none are going to be reused? Because these are freebies, and if the primary fails, the others don really matter. canada goose outlet houston

canada goose outlet toronto So although it does not seem likely to me that they will try a 2nd stage recovery on the opposite coast, it would not surprise me. And i certainly would canadian goose jacket not buy canada goose jacket discount it because of its PR effects. canada goose outlet toronto

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canada goose parka uk That right. As i read it, their « rent » includes the right to use them for parking, but only until someone else makes and offer, at which point the right of first refusal kicks in. Not clear to me what would happen to the rent if they lost the parking access if they chose to not exercise their right of first refusal. Presumably there would be some compensation. It seems to me that this right of first refusal could have very significant value; but right now those uk canada goose outlet lots are just a parking arrangement. Their historical designation complicates matters, but i assume those things can change canada goose parka uk.